Probability vs. Reality: Charting Your Own Course1 min read

“𝐈𝐟 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝟏𝟎𝟎% 𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧, 𝐢𝐭’𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐧𝐨 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐚 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐧.”


That’s the advice my psychology teacher gave me.

Everyone’s life is truly unique

We don’t know what will happen to us, and we can’t predict the outcomes of our actions, especially when they involve others.

Sometimes, all factors and our interpretation point to one cause, result, or conclusion.

Statistically, it might be a reasonable assumption, but we often deal with specific cases.

As they say, it doesn’t matter if the probability is 99% if you end up in that 1%.

We can’t predict anything in advance.

If so, what can we do?

First:

▶︎ Explore possibilities

▶︎ Test probabilities

▶︎ Analyze outcomes

And then build what you want based on what happens.

Based on facts, not assumptions.

It’s particularly dangerous to base your actions on conclusions like “it can’t be any other way!” In such cases, often, the castles in the air collapse straight onto their creators, with all the consequences.

We never know precisely how something will happen until it does.

Maybe in general, but the details make the difference and are crucial.

So, moving step by step along the path of progress is the fastest way to achieve desired results.

(C) Progress Psychologist, Ivan